When betting on professional basketball, betting on the home team is a safe bet. The home court advantage is strong, as the home team comes out victorious over 60% of the time straight up. When the point spread is brought into the equation, however, the home team ends up the winner slightly less than half the time. So when betting the home town heroes in the NBA, how should one bet them?
When the home team is favored
When the home team is listed as the favorite on the NBA line, the home team wins nearly three-quarters of the time. This suggests that the home team wins when they are expected to win most of the time. However, when the home team is favored and spots points to the visitors, as they do when they come in as the favorite in the NBA point spread line, the home team covers the spread only half the time. This leaves roughly a 25% gap between the actual results and the results against the spread. With that in mind, a basketball bettor is best served taking the home favorite via the money line.
When there is a dog at home
When the home team sits as an underdog in the NBA, they win outright less than 35% of the time. This suggests that the underdog at home does not perform above expectations. When they are expected to lose, they typically go down in defeat – meeting expectations. However, when the home team gets points in the spread, the home dog wins with the added points 48% of the time. This suggests that the home team is best bet as an underdog taking the points, as the added points are typically enough to push the home dog over the top. However, the home dog rarely wins outright.
When betting on the home team in NBA basketball betting, a bettor is well served using the money line to bet the hometown favorite, while accepting points when betting the home dog against the spread. The difference of 15% between outright wins and wins by virtue of the spread justify taking the points with the home court advantage. However, an NBA basketball bettor wants to be cautious of spotting the road dog points when the home team is favored, as the difference in outcome varies by nearly 25%.